Identify Books In Pursuance Of The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - But Some Don't
| Original Title: | The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - But Some Don't |
| ISBN: | 159420411X (ISBN13: 9781594204111) |
| Edition Language: | English |
| Literary Awards: | Goodreads Choice Award Nominee for Nonfiction (2012), Phi Beta Kappa Award in Science (2013) |
Nate Silver
Hardcover | Pages: 534 pages Rating: 3.98 | 40710 Users | 2935 Reviews
Itemize Based On Books The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - But Some Don't
| Title | : | The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - But Some Don't |
| Author | : | Nate Silver |
| Book Format | : | Hardcover |
| Book Edition | : | Anniversary Edition |
| Pages | : | Pages: 534 pages |
| Published | : | September 27th 2012 by Penguin (first published 2012) |
| Categories | : | Nonfiction. Science. Business. Economics. Politics. Psychology. Mathematics |
Representaion To Books The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - But Some Don't
One of Wall Street Journal's Best Ten Works of Nonfiction in 2012New York Times Bestseller
"Not so different in spirit from the way public intellectuals like John Kenneth Galbraith once shaped discussions of economic policy and public figures like Walter Cronkite helped sway opinion on the Vietnam War…could turn out to be one of the more momentous books of the decade."
-New York Times Book Review
"Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century."
-Rachel Maddow, author of Drift
"A serious treatise about the craft of prediction-without academic mathematics-cheerily aimed at lay readers. Silver's coverage is polymathic, ranging from poker and earthquakes to climate change and terrorism."
-New York Review of Books
Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger-all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.com.
Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the "prediction paradox": The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.
In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good-or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary-and dangerous-science.
Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.
With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver's insights are an essential read.
Rating Based On Books The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - But Some Don't
Ratings: 3.98 From 40710 Users | 2935 ReviewsArticle Based On Books The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - But Some Don't
Nate Silver does an excellent job demonstrating the different domains where statistics plays a part. More importantly, he describes why methods that proved successful in one domain are inadequate or inappropriate to another domain. The best part about the book is that he doesn't resort to math to explain these differences. The problem with the book is that he fails to take the lessons from previous chapters and apply them to subsequent chapters. I think this may have explained his hubris inYes, this book is by that guy Nate Silver who correctly predicted the winner of the 2008 presidential elections in 49 out of 50 states. That might seem off-putting. The credentials portend a heavy tome on statistics. Those fears are quickly allayed. This book is entertaining as well as informative. Silver offers solace to those frustrated by information overload. Over-simplification on the one hand and brute-force data crunching on the other can both lead to serious errors. Of the latter he
The Signal and the Noise is a very interesting book with mixed success: 3 1/2 stars, were this permitted. I found it somewhat difficult to review; however, my entire book group without exception had similar opinions. I would encourage you to view this as a group opinion.At its best, TSANTN is interesting, illustrative, educational, and provocative. And many chapters including banking, the weather, volcanoes, elections, and poker were exactly that. Four stars, without hesitation. The problem
4 ½ stars.Nate Silver is probably best known as the statistician who confounded the experts by predicting the results of the 2008 and 2012 U.S. Presidential elections. As a matter of fact, his web site (https://fivethirtyeight.com/) actually did much better than the average pollsters and media with the 2016 election as well. I was following the writing on the site right up to the night of the election. Entering the final few days, 538 was giving Trump about a 1/3 chance of winning, while most
I really enjoyed the book, Nate's talk, and meeting him in person. The book is about predictions and goes through many world events that we can all relate to and discusses the signals and noise that went on around these events. You'll recognize the 2008 US election, the large earthquakes, especially in Japan, swine flu, both the one in the 70s and the more recent epidemic, economic meltdowns, 911, Pearl Harbour, stock market fluctuations, and much more. Throughout these stories, we learn about
This is a really amazing book - a must read for anyone who makes decisions or judgement calls. Even before I had finished the book it caused me to look at some of the assumptions and bad forecasts I was making as well as recognising "patterns" as noise.There is nothing "new" in this book, just well established and solid methods applied well and explained very coherently. The writing is excellent, the graphics helpful and the type not too small. There are plenty of footnotes (relevant to the
Eh, underwhelmed. A survey of prediction and predictive tools, starting with failures and moving on to successes. Nothing particularly new or interesting here, and I think Silver knew it. Its not like the premise that the strength of a prediction depends on the accuracy of the data is revelatory or anything. A lot of survey nonfiction like this can be saved with interesting collateral content. This book tours over a dozen topics, but I didnt find much new or compelling or even particularly
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